OPEC+ keeps a cautious hand on output as Hormuz risks cloud oil market
OPEC+ approved a 188,000-barrel-per-day September adjustment, but constrained Hormuz shipping keeps crude and refined-fuel markets exposed to disruption.
Energy Markets
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IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO Say Global Economy Has Absorbed Middle East War Shock — for Now
The four institutions said the global economy remained broadly resilient after the Middle East war shock, but higher energy and fertilizer prices continue to threaten inflation, jobs and vulnerable economies.
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IMF Holds 2026 Global Growth Forecast at 3% as War and AI Pull Economies in Opposite Directions
The IMF kept its global growth outlook broadly unchanged, but warned that the Middle East war, stalled disinflation and financial-market repricing threaten the recovery.
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OPEC+ Approves 188,000-Barrel-a-Day Production Increase as Oil Prices Weaken
OPEC+ will raise its combined production target by about 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the rollback of a layer of voluntary cuts as Brent crude trades below $72 a barrel.
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ECB Holds Rates Steady as Middle East Conflict Clouds Euro-Area Outlook
The European Central Bank kept its monetary-policy settings unchanged on July 23, 2026, as conflict-related energy risks and financial uncertainty complicated the euro-area outlook.
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WTO-IMF Index Shows Global Trade-Policy Activity Rose Through May 2026
The World Trade Organization’s updated index, jointly developed with the IMF, records continued growth in global trade-policy activity through May 2026 amid war-related economic and energy disruption.
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OPEC+ Approves 188,000-Barrel-Per-Day September Increase as Seven Producers Roll Back Voluntary Cuts
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman approved an additional September production adjustment after reviewing global oil-market conditions.
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IMF Holds 2026 Global Growth Forecast at 3% as War and AI Investment Pull Economies Apart
The IMF kept its global growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged, but warned that energy shocks, stalled disinflation and financial repricing are widening differences between economies.
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Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Talks With Oman Are Nearing a Deal on August 5
Iran said August 5 that negotiations with Oman over an arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz had reached their final stage, while U.S. officials said a deal was close but unresolved.
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OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia Approve September Oil-Output Increase After August 2 Decision
OPEC+ agreed on August 2 to raise its combined production target by about 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the rollback of a larger voluntary cut announced in 2023.
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IMF Holds 2026 Global Growth Forecast at 3% as War and Stalled Disinflation Raise Risks
The International Monetary Fund kept its global growth forecast at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027, while warning that the Middle East war, energy exposure and renewed financial repricing are making the outlook more uneven.
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Global Growth Holds at 3% as IMF Warns of Uneven Risks
The IMF kept its global growth projections steady but raised its inflation outlook, warning that energy, trade and financial risks remain unevenly distributed.
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Russia diesel export ban through July 31, 2026: fuel uncertainty ripple risk
Russia extended diesel export restrictions through July 31, 2026, citing domestic shortages after energy strikes. What it could change for global diesel logistics.
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OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd for August 2026—why shipping risk may blunt price gains
World Economy Trade Energy and Technology Scan – OPEC+ approved an extra 188,000 bpd starting August 2026, but price relief depends on Strait of Hormuz tanker flows.
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IMF July 8 trims growth, stalls disinflation—energy shock meets AI investment
IMF’s July 8 WEO Update links renewed Middle East energy risk and AI investment to stalled disinflation—and tougher rate-cut tradeoffs.
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OPEC+ raises output by 188,000 bpd for August—Hormuz risk still matters
OPEC+ will raise oil output targets by 188,000 bpd in August 2026, but Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions could still jolt fuel prices.
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UN warns renewed escalation risk as US-Iran ceasefire strains Strait of Hormuz
World Diplomacy Conflict and Security Scan – UN and IMO warn de-escalation as renewed US-Iran tensions disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping and seafarer evacuations.