Tampa Bay renters could feel Florida’s property-tax overhaul—state model starts in 2027

Florida is considering a constitutional amendment that would change how quickly certain property values can rise for tax purposes and would expand parts of the homestead exemption system. If approved by voters, a state revenue model says the quantifiable impacts would begin with the 2027 roll—a timing that matters for renters in Tampa Bay because local budgets and tax rates can respond.

CS/HJR 1F: the two core changes

1) A lower cap on non-homestead assessed-value growth. Under current law, non-homestead, non-agricultural parcels have an annual assessment-growth limit of 10%. The proposed amendment would reduce that maximum growth rate to 5%.

2) Changes to the homestead exemption—especially for non-school taxes. The EDR model describes a rewrite of the second homestead exemption (for non-school taxes). For homeowners who maintained a permanent residence in Florida as of December 31, 2026, the model shows the second exemption becoming $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, then adjusting with CPI starting in later years. For homeowners who did not maintain a permanent residence in Florida as of December 31, 2026, the model shows the second exemption becoming $50,000 in 2027 with CPI adjustments thereafter.

When the model says it starts—and what happens if voters say no

The Florida EDR Revenue Estimating Conference document says the resolution is self-executing and would first impact the 2027 roll. It also notes that if the constitutional amendment does not pass, the modeled impact is zero for the quantifiable pieces.

Tampa Bay snapshot: Hillsborough County and the City of Tampa

In the EDR model’s “Impact By Government Type Within Each County” table, the modeled recurring local/other ad valorem impact for the first modeled year shown is:

• Hillsborough County: -$260,855,305
• City of Tampa: -$40,510,382

Those figures represent projected changes to a local revenue stream under the amendment’s operative assumptions—not an automatic prediction of what any individual landlord will do.

So what does this have to do with renters?

Axios Tampa Bay frames the renter stake as indirect. It reports that more than half of Tampa Bay renters are already cost-burdened—spending at least 30% of their income on housing. It also explains a key mechanism residents should understand: even with the 5% assessment-growth cap (down from the current 10%), local governments could still adjust tax rates. In that scenario, property taxes on rental units could rise, and Axios notes landlords might pass some costs to tenants through higher rents.

What Tampa Bay residents should watch next

• Ballot and legal status: this is a voter-dependent constitutional change. Model assumptions are not the same thing as final outcomes.
• Local budgeting and millage decisions: if projected revenue growth slows for Hillsborough County and the City of Tampa, local governments may face tradeoffs that show up in future tax-rate choices.
• How “make-up” funding gets allocated: watch for whether any adjustments shift costs toward rental properties versus homeowners.

Sources

• Florida EDR Revenue Estimating Conference impact model for CS/HJR 1F (impact0710.pdf)
• Axios Tampa Bay (July 16, 2026): How Florida’s property tax cut could affect renters