Fresno’s finalized water-shortage plan sets five stages but declares none
Fresno has published a finalized framework for responding to future water shortages, but the plan itself does not declare a shortage or impose new citywide emergency limits.
The City Council adopted Fresno’s 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and separate 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan on June 25, 2026. The final contingency plan, published in July, authorizes the City Manager or designee to declare a shortage stage and implement the response actions associated with it.
What Fresno adopted
The two documents serve different purposes. The Urban Water Management Plan addresses long-term water-resource planning. The Water Shortage Contingency Plan is the city’s operating framework for assessing supply and demand and responding when conditions create a shortage.
The council approved both plans by a 4-1 vote, with two council members absent. The action also authorized the City Manager or designee to declare an appropriate water-shortage stage and implement associated response measures. It did not itself declare Stage 1, Stage 2 or any higher stage.
How the five stages work
Fresno’s contingency plan uses five shortage stages based on the projected gap between available supplies and normal customer demand:
- Stage 1: a projected shortage of 0% to 10%.
- Stage 2: a projected shortage of 10% to 25%.
- Stage 3: a projected shortage of 25% to 35%.
- Stage 4: a projected shortage of 35% to 50%.
- Stage 5: a projected shortage greater than 50%.
The plan says Stage 1 relies on voluntary customer reductions. Stages 2 through 5 include mandatory reduction actions, and restrictions accumulate as the city moves to higher stages. The city may also consider additional actions in extreme circumstances.
The stage percentages are planning thresholds, not a declaration that Fresno currently faces a shortage. Under the plan, the city compares projected supplies with demand while adding a 10% operational buffer to account for uncertainty.
What could trigger a shortage declaration
Fresno’s annual assessment considers customer demand, surface-water allocations, groundwater conditions, infrastructure capacity and state conservation requirements. The review can identify a projected supply-demand gap for the coming year and determine whether a shortage stage or response action may be necessary.
The plan also covers emergencies that could limit service, including power outages, earthquakes, wildfires, contamination, structural failures and other natural or human-caused events. State drought declarations, conservation mandates and water-efficiency requirements may also factor into the city’s determination.
Public Utilities staff would analyze conditions and recommend the conservation level. The City Manager or designee would then declare and implement the applicable stage. The declaration would remain in effect until that authority changes it, and any conservation-level declaration must be published at least once in a newspaper of general circulation.
The city is required to conduct an annual water-supply-and-demand assessment and submit a report to the California Department of Water Resources by July 1 each year. For Fresno as a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation contractor, the plan says the deadline can instead run until 14 days after the city receives its final Bureau allocation, if that occurs later.
What the supply analysis says
Fresno’s plan describes its supply portfolio as highly reliable. The city relies on groundwater from the Kings Subbasin, surface water from the Central Valley Project’s Friant Division and the Kings River through contracts with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Fresno Irrigation District, plus recycled water from the Fresno-Clovis Regional Water Reclamation Facility and North Fresno Water Reclamation Facility.
The analysis projects that Fresno can meet potable demand in normal years, a single dry year and a five-consecutive-year drought scenario through conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater. It also projects that the city can recharge water in most years for use during drier periods.
Those are planning projections, not a guarantee that shortages cannot occur. The plan still identifies reduced surface-water availability, groundwater problems, infrastructure limits and emergencies as conditions that could create a shortage.
What applies now
Permanent conservation rules are separate from temporary measures tied to a shortage declaration. Fresno’s year-round rules include outdoor watering schedules, prohibitions on runoff and water waste, restrictions on washing hard surfaces with potable water, leak requirements and rules for certain pools, fountains and other uses.
Those permanent requirements apply whether or not the city is in a shortage stage. Additional mandatory reductions would begin only after an authorized shortage-stage declaration and related public instructions are issued.
What customers should watch
Residents, businesses and other city water customers should look for an official notice identifying the declared conservation level, any reduction target and the specific rules for outdoor watering, commercial use, pools, enforcement and penalties.
The plan calls for public communication through channels that may include the city’s website, utility-bill notices, direct mail, targeted outreach and other notices as shortage conditions increase. Customers should continue using the city’s water-conservation resources and follow the existing year-round rules unless Fresno announces a separate shortage-stage action.
The practical change is that Fresno now has a formal playbook for a future shortage. The immediate obligation for customers remains compliance with the city’s existing permanent conservation requirements; the stronger temporary measures described in the plan would depend on a future declaration by the City Manager or designee.
Sources
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