CBO estimates Trump’s 2027 budget proposals would reshape federal spending through 2036
The Congressional Budget Office on June 30 published its analysis of President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2027 budget request, estimating how the proposed changes would affect mandatory and discretionary federal spending over the 10-year period from 2027 through 2036.
The analysis gives Congress an independent estimate of the budget request as lawmakers weigh the administration’s proposals. It does not make the proposed spending into law. The figures are projections based on specified assumptions, rather than enacted spending levels or final audited results.
A budget request set against large deficits
The CBO analysis comes as the agency’s February 2026 budget baseline projects a $1.9 trillion federal deficit for fiscal year 2026. The baseline also projects $7.4 trillion in federal outlays and $5.6 trillion in revenues during the fiscal year.
Those figures describe the government’s projected overall fiscal position before the longer-term effects of the 2027 request are considered. They provide the backdrop for evaluating whether proposed changes would increase or reduce federal spending and borrowing over time.
CBO projects that debt held by the public will equal 101% of gross domestic product in 2026. By 2036, the agency projects that figure will reach 120% of GDP.
Debt held by the public measures federal debt owed to investors outside the federal government. Comparing the projected share with the size of the economy provides a way to assess the scale of the government’s borrowing burden over the decade covered by the outlook.
Recent budget trends
CBO’s June monthly review estimated that the federal deficit reached $1.4 trillion during the first nine months of fiscal year 2026. That was $35 billion more than the deficit recorded during the comparable period a year earlier.
During those nine months, revenues increased by $142 billion from the same period in the prior fiscal year, while outlays increased by $178 billion. The larger increase in outlays helps explain why the deficit was higher even as the government collected more revenue.
The monthly figures are not the same as the full-year projection. They cover the portion of fiscal 2026 that had elapsed at the time of CBO’s review, while the $1.9 trillion figure is the agency’s projected deficit for the entire fiscal year.
Effects of earlier policy changes
CBO’s broader baseline also estimates that the 2025 reconciliation act increased projected deficits by $4.7 trillion. The agency estimates that higher tariffs reduced projected deficits by $3.0 trillion.
Those estimates are part of the fiscal context surrounding the 2027 budget request. They reflect CBO’s assessment of the budgetary effects of those policies under the assumptions used in its outlook; they are not a statement that the president’s new request has been enacted.
What happens next
The June 30 analysis gives Congress a 2027-to-2036 estimate for the request’s effects on mandatory and discretionary spending. Mandatory spending generally follows eligibility rules and other provisions established in law, while discretionary spending is provided through annual appropriations. The CBO analysis addresses both categories across the 10-year window.
Congress will use the analysis as it considers the president’s budget proposals. Any final spending levels would depend on congressional action and the laws ultimately enacted. Until then, the CBO figures remain estimates of the request’s potential fiscal effects rather than a final federal budget.
The central fiscal pressure identified in the surrounding CBO outlook is the combination of large projected deficits and rising debt. Against that backdrop, the agency’s analysis offers lawmakers a baseline for judging how the administration’s proposed changes could affect federal spending, deficits and debt through 2036.
Sources
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, Congressional Budget Office
- Monthly Budget Review: June 2026, Congressional Budget Office
- Budget, Congressional Budget Office
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