July Tourism Data Show U.S. Inbound Travel Below Expectations

Preliminary federal data show that international travel to the United States weakened in July 2026, even as the year was expected to benefit from the FIFA World Cup and the nation’s 250th-anniversary celebrations.

The National Travel and Tourism Office reported 26.4 million international air passenger enplanements to and from the United States in July, down 2.4% from July 2025. Non-U.S. citizen air passenger arrivals fell 3.0% to 5.1 million, while U.S. citizen air passenger departures declined 2.2% to 7.9 million.

A separate visitor measure showed a sharper decline: overseas visitor arrivals totaled about 3.1 million, down 7% from a year earlier.

What the July numbers measure

The figures come from two related but different federal statistical systems. APIS/I-92 measures nonstop air passenger traffic between the United States and foreign countries. It includes arrivals and departures, U.S. and non-U.S. citizens, and traffic involving Canada, Mexico and overseas markets.

That is a traffic count, not a direct count of tourists. A passenger may be traveling for business, connecting through an airport or otherwise not meet the federal definition used for an overnight visitor. NTTO also cautions that nonstop air traffic is segment data and does not necessarily represent total visitation between the United States and another country.

The ADIS/I-94 program is designed to measure eligible international visitors staying at least one night. NTTO uses visa classifications, country of residence and stay information to identify visitor arrivals. The overseas figure excludes Canada and Mexico, so it should not be combined with total international visitation without that qualification.

NTTO says the July I-94 figures are preliminary and subject to revision. Monthly and annual data can remain preliminary for up to 36 months from the initial release date before becoming final.

July result versus the federal forecast

The decline contrasts with NTTO’s April 2026 forecast, which projected total international visitation would rise 3.2% from 2025 to 70.5 million visitors. The forecast identified the 2026 FIFA World Cup as one factor expected to stimulate travel demand and increase visitor arrivals.

The July data do not establish that the tournament caused a decline or that it failed as a causal matter. They show only that July did not produce the broad increase in inbound travel anticipated in the federal outlook.

Independent travel-industry coverage has pointed to possible explanations including travel costs, energy prices, immigration concerns and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies. Those are reported industry interpretations, not conclusions proved by the July data.

Weakness was uneven across markets

International air traffic did not move uniformly. Canada recorded a 1.5% increase in combined air passenger traffic to 3.1 million passengers. Mexico accounted for 3.7 million passengers, the United Kingdom for 2 million and Germany for 1.1 million; each of those markets was lower than a year earlier in the July summary.

By region, Europe recorded 8.5 million passengers, down 2.6% year over year. South and Central America and the Caribbean totaled 6.4 million, down 2.5%. Asia was nearly flat at 2.8 million, down 0.3%, while Middle East traffic fell 7% to 1.2 million.

Why the distinction matters

Airports, hotels, restaurants, attractions, retailers and tourism workers rely on different types of travelers and spending. A change in passenger traffic may affect airport operations and airline demand, while overnight visitor arrivals are more directly relevant to lodging and destination businesses.

Even then, lower arrivals do not automatically mean lower tourism spending. Length of stay, traveler mix, hotel rates, business travel and spending on food, recreation and entertainment require separate data.

The national figures also may produce different effects across destinations. Markets with strong Canadian traffic may perform differently from destinations that depend more heavily on Europe, Mexico or long-haul visitors.

What to watch next

The next indicators will be August and fall arrivals, revisions to the July I-94 data and performance by individual source market. Later releases will show whether July was a temporary setback or part of a broader 2026 pattern.

The full-year comparison will also matter. By the end of 2026, the question will be whether actual international visitation converges with NTTO’s 70.5 million forecast—or diverges from it despite the major events expected to support demand.

Sources

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