USDA forecasts higher 2026 grocery prices, led by beef and produce

U.S. grocery prices are expected to rise again in 2026, but the national average hides large differences among food categories. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service projects food-at-home prices will increase 2.7% for the year, with beef, fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages expected to rise faster.

Eggs are the main projected source of relief. USDA expects retail egg prices to fall 30.7% from their 2025 average as production recovers from earlier avian-influenza disruptions. That forecast describes a decline from an unusually high base; it does not promise a return to pre-2022 prices.

Beef remains the clearest pressure point

USDA projects beef and veal prices will rise 10.7% in 2026, with a 95% prediction interval of 7.2% to 14.6%. The agency’s explanation points to tight supplies, a U.S. cattle herd at its lowest level in 75 years and continued consumer demand despite higher prices.

Beef and veal prices were already 11.8% higher in June 2026 than a year earlier and increased 1.4% from May to June, according to USDA’s summary of the June Consumer Price Index. The agency’s July livestock outlook provides additional supply context, including the effect of reduced cattle inventories on beef markets.

Fresh vegetables and sweets are also above the average forecast

USDA projects fresh vegetable prices will increase 6.8% in 2026, with a 95% prediction interval of 4.3% to 9.5%. June prices were 9.9% higher than a year earlier, even though the category fell 1.2% from May.

The category is uneven. In June, fresh lettuce prices were 32.1% higher than a year earlier and tomatoes were up 19.5%, while fresh potatoes were up 1.4%. A household’s experience can therefore vary substantially depending on the products it buys, the store it uses and whether it shops promotions or substitutes among items.

USDA also projects a 7.2% increase for sugar and sweets and a 3.9% increase for nonalcoholic beverages. In June, sugar and sweets were 6.9% higher than a year earlier, while nonalcoholic beverages were 2.9% higher despite falling 1.5% during the month.

Eggs are the main projected relief

Retail egg prices were 27.9% lower in June 2026 than in June 2025, according to USDA. The agency says egg production is recovering, replacement pullets have been sufficient for regular flock turnover and unpredictable avian-influenza losses, and there were fewer new highly pathogenic avian-influenza detections in the first quarter of 2026 than in the same period of 2025.

USDA projects egg prices will decline 30.7% for the full year, with a 95% prediction interval of a 23.4% to 36.5% decline. Because the comparison is with the elevated 2025 average, a large percentage drop does not necessarily mean eggs will be as inexpensive as they were before the 2022 outbreak.

What shoppers should watch next

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that food-at-home prices increased 0.2% from May to June and were 2.7% higher than in June 2025. The June report showed monthly increases in the meats, poultry, fish and eggs group, dairy and related products, cereals and bakery products, and other food at home. Egg prices rose 4.3% during June, while nonalcoholic beverages fell 1.5% and the fruits and vegetables index fell 0.2%.

USDA says food-at-home prices rose 1.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, below their 20-year historical average annual increase of 2.6%. The 2026 projection is slightly above that average and far below the 11.4% increase recorded in 2022.

The USDA number is a statistical projection, not a guarantee of a specific price at a particular store. The agency gives its 2.7% food-at-home forecast a 95% prediction interval of 1.6% to 3.9%. Regional conditions, brands, package sizes, retailer pricing and promotions can produce results that differ from the national category averages.

Households are already adjusting how they shop. Associated Press reporting describes consumers shifting toward discount retailers, store brands and promotions as elevated grocery costs remain embedded in household budgets. Those choices may matter more to an individual family’s final bill than the national average, and reported retailer price cuts should not be interpreted as evidence that grocery prices are falling nationwide.

The next broad federal check on grocery-price trends will be the BLS Consumer Price Index release for July, scheduled for August 12, 2026.

Sources

• USDA Economic Research Service — Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, June 2026
• Associated Press — Why U.S. grocery prices shoot up like rockets and fall like feathers