WMO Warns El Niño Could Rapidly Intensify Into a Strong Event by September 2026
The World Meteorological Organization said July 3, 2026, that El Niño conditions were developing in the tropical Pacific and could rapidly intensify into a strong event during July–September 2026. The warning raises the prospect of greater weather volatility across multiple regions worldwide.
WMO said the developing event could influence weather and climate patterns around the world. Its assessment points to increased risks of heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas, drought in others, and changes in tropical-cyclone activity.
The forecast is not a declaration that any particular country will experience a specific disaster. WMO’s outlook describes probabilities and broad risks, while the timing and severity of regional effects will require follow-up from national meteorological agencies.
What the forecast says
El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, according to WMO. In its July 3 update, the agency said the event was expected to develop rapidly into a strong El Niño during the July–September 2026 period.
That projected intensification matters because WMO links El Niño to shifts in weather and climate patterns beyond the tropical Pacific. The agency identified the possibility of heavier rainfall and flooding in some regions, while other regions could face drought.
WMO also warned that tropical-cyclone activity could change. The source packet does not specify which countries or basins would see more or fewer cyclones, so the forecast should not be treated as a uniform risk across the world.
Risks for food, water and health
The agency said the developing event could increase pressure on food and water systems. Those effects could arise through contrasting regional conditions: excessive rainfall and flooding in some places, and water stress associated with drought in others.
WMO’s earlier El Niño/La Niña bulletin, launched June 5, also identified possible global effects including floods, drought, altered cyclone activity and heat-related illness. The bulletin provides context for the July 3 warning, but neither source gives a single global estimate for casualties or economic losses.
For communities, governments and organizations managing food and water supplies, the immediate significance is the need to monitor changing regional forecasts rather than assume that the same effect will occur everywhere. The potential consequences span weather hazards, health risks and essential-resource planning.
What happens next
National meteorological agencies will need to translate WMO’s global assessment into regional outlooks and updated warnings. Those follow-up assessments will be important because the forecast does not establish event-level impacts for individual countries.
The International Charter: Space and Major Disasters lists 2026 activations including a wildfire in Kazakhstan and a flood in Bangladesh. The listing provides a basis for event-level monitoring, but the approved information does not attribute either event to El Niño. They should therefore not be presented as consequences of the WMO forecast.
The next key period identified by WMO is July through September 2026, when the agency expects the developing conditions to intensify rapidly into a strong event. Until regional agencies issue more specific assessments, the central message is heightened preparedness for differing risks: flooding and heavy rainfall in some areas, drought in others, possible changes in tropical-cyclone activity, and added pressure on food and water systems.
Sources
- El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather, World Meteorological Organization
- Launch of WMO El Niño/La Niña Bulletin: June-August 2026, World Meteorological Organization
- International Charter: Space and Major Disasters
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