Sudan drought adds pressure as WFP forecasts hunger rise

Drought and poor harvest prospects are adding pressure to Sudan’s food crisis, alongside conflict and reduced aid. The World Food Programme forecasts that 350,000 additional people will face severe hunger by the end of 2026 and 1.2 million by August 2027, according to Reuters. These are projections, not counts of people already experiencing hunger, and the figures should not be added together: the comparison baseline and whether the later forecast includes the earlier one were not specified.

The forecasts point to a worsening risk, not a new famine determination. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warned on October 12 that famine risk was growing in conflict-affected areas and that El Niño-linked drought was compounding existing conditions. IPC materials have confirmed famine in parts of Sudan in earlier assessments; the latest warning described by Reuters did not classify the country as newly in famine.

Rainfall records show the scale of the dry season i

July through September rainfall was the lowest in more than three decades across Sudan, Reuters reported, citing U.S. Geological Survey data. The reported local records stretch back decades: rainfall was lowest since 1984 in North Darfur, since 1990 in North Kordofan and since 1991 in Gedaref. Independent climate monitoring also described below-normal and dry conditions across Sudan during the 2026 rainy season.

That historical comparison helps put the harvest concern in context: the reported dry spell was not simply a short-term dip against recent years. Farmers and livestock owners were facing reported stress on crops and pasture. Harvesting was expected to begin in November and December.

Sudan’s agriculture minister, Esmat Qureshi, offered a less severe assessment on October 8, saying the harvest would be lower but not significantly below the previous year, Reuters reported. That is the minister’s forecast, not a confirmed harvest result. The difference between that assessment and the concerns over rainfall and crop conditions remains unresolved until the harvest is assessed.

Forecasts and funding figures are not current totals i

The IPC had estimated that 5.1 million people in Sudan faced severe hunger in June 2026, Reuters reported, and was updating that figure. It is a June estimate, not an October count. IPC materials also say access and data constraints prevent current classification in some areas, even as available evidence indicates famine conditions continue.

For readers comparing the figures, the WFP’s 350,000 and 1.2 million forecasts describe additional people at different future points, while the IPC’s 5.1 million figure describes people facing severe hunger in June. They measure different time periods and should not be treated as a single running total.

As of October 17, WFP had $276 million for its Sudan operation and said it needed another $134 million to address drought-related hunger, Reuters reported. The additional request is about half the amount the agency then had available, though the figures describe different things: overall operational funding and a stated need tied to drought-related hunger. They do not show how much assistance any particular community received.

People in conflict-affected areas, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan, were among those Reuters identified as hardest hit. The next relevant measures are the IPC’s updated food-security figures and the harvest expected to start in November and December.